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Two days to go.

England's first Test in Australia begins on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we explore where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be determined.

It's tough to score runs, isn't it?

Batters on both teams of the Ashes rivalry might be wondering why they are bothering to show up.

A lot of the build-up has focused on the apparent challenge of batting successfully, particularly for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".

When it comes to playing in Australian conditions, especially against pace bowling, no country has been more difficult in which to accumulate runs over the last five years.

Two key factors for this: pitches and cricket balls.

Taken as a collective, the surfaces prepared in Australia have recently proved to be the fastest, most bouncy and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Pace and inconsistent bounce are the ideal combination for difficult batting conditions.

A common belief from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a fast bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.

Seam bowling is a more significant asset than swing in Australian conditions.

After the new ball's introduction, fast bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about solving problems.

When the ball is on top, batsmen's contributions can be the difference, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be dominated by the ball, a batsman could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australian pace attack?

On this occasion, England have arrived in Australia with their fast-bowling unit largely intact, while the hosts are the ones hit by injuries.

Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the first Test with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unspecified time because of a hamstring injury.

Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Starc were first united as a trio for the 2017-18 series.

From that point, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australia pace bowlers in home Tests.

The Australian team have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'big three'.

When Australia have needed a back-up, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 dismissals in 14 matches at an average below 17.

In addition to Scott Boland, other members of Australia's supporting cast have performed well.

Michael Neser, Jhye Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia went into a home Test without Cummins and Hazlewood, and were defeated, was in 2012.

The past two times they have competed in Australia without the duo, they have won by a combined 694 runs, including a win against England in Adelaide previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to go past their star fast bowlers, results have remained strong – The tourists should take heed.

Tough at the top

Remember when England could not find an opener to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Cook changed partners faster than Watford change coaches.

No more.

Since Duckett and Crawley were united at the top of the England order at the end of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has scored more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a factor in Crawley being supported through some patchy form.

The Kent man, who famously struck the initial delivery of the last Ashes series for a boundary, has also been identified as having the game for Australia.

His batting average rises when the bowling gets faster.

In comparison, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, still seeking to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

After Warner's retirement at the start of 2024, Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Uncapped Jake Weatherald looks set to become the sixth in 16 on Friday, giving Australia an left-handed opening pair.

It is not just the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was shifted to open for the WTC final, then dropped entirely.

Domestic form has brought him back, probably returning to number three.

Across seven matches in 2025, Australia's top three have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Battle of Spin

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is one area where Australia are clearly stronger – spin.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, with 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spin bowlers to ever play.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a somewhat successful selection punt, appearing out of touch after a broken finger, while Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the hosts to want Lyon at the forefront, but bowling spin has been extremely challenging in Australia for the last decade.

In that time, spinners have averaged almost 44 in this country, though Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Another challenge for Lyon is actually bowling enough overs.

Recall the potency of pace bowling?

It is reducing the time Lyon has with the ball.

During the 2017-18 series here, Nathan Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five matches against India, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning Lyon has fewer opportunities to make an impact.

Favorable Conditions?

The English team have a unfortunate tendency of being defeated in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has set off.

Traditionally, the series traditionally started in Brisbane, where they have failed to win since 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide Oval.

England have a single victory in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while the hosts have won 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a venue England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only one time, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the first three stops on the tour are the same, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

The Perth Test stages an series opener for the first time, not at the fabled Waca – site of past English struggles – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It is still a tough assignment, though one the tourists tackle with no past burdens.

Brisbane is the venue for the second match, the day-night fixture.

The most recent occasion Australia played a day-night Test at the Gabba, they were surprised by West Indies.

Similarly, the Aussies are now not used to playing day matches at the usual day-night venue Adelaide Oval.

In the two red-ball matches played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, though with risks.

Australia have secured victory in four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the most recent match – against India last year.

Every Test at the new venue has been claimed by the team batting first.

The English often complicate floodlit Tests, when data suggest the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its red counterpart.

The challenge in {day-night matches|